“It’s huge” — Record attendance as Iowa caucuses shake up campaigns
At Des Moines Precinct 9, poll workers summed it up in simple terms: “It’s huge.”
For the Des Moines workers and the thousands like them working tirelessly across the state of Iowa, tonight’s Iowa caucuses - particularly for the Democrats - were unprecedented in scale. With 93.5% of precincts reporting, the Iowa State Democratic Party said attendance topped 218,000, nearly doubling 2004’s number of approximately 125,000 participants.
In the first electoral contest of the 2008 presidential campaign, Illinois Senator Barack Obama scored a significant victory against former Iowa front-runner Hillary Clinton with 38% of the vote. As this update was posted, Clinton continued to jockey for second with 2004 vice-presidential candidate John Edwards - although with 99% of precincts reporting, it appeared Edwards would take a statistical second-place finish, hovering around 30%. Senator Clinton’s campaign fell into a tail-spin several weeks ago, following an uncharacteristically poor debate showing as well as reports that staffers planted questions at multiple campaign events.
Writing for the Huffington Post on the ground in Iowa at Webster Township Precinct 1, Marc Cooper reported that “Hillary supporters are in shock here. They started with about 15 [caucus-goers] and immediately shrunk to three.”
In the Iowa Democratic caucus system, a candidate must meet a precinct-determined “viability-threshold” (typically between 15 and 25 percent of a precinct’s caucus-goers) in order to be eligible for the apportionment of state convention delegates.
Also writing from Iowa - this time Iowa City Precinct 8 - Mayhill Fowler of the Huffington Post reports: “The Obama and Edwards supporters are in cahoots to thwart Clinton.” Iowa is historically less-than-Clintonian, but the populist rhetoric of both Obama and Edwards appears to have recently struck a chord in the deeply blue-collar state. Clinton’s inability to resonate with Iowa voters was largely due, it appears, the theme of change vs. experience: in entrance polling reported by CNN, just over half of Democratic caucus-goers named “change” as the most important issue, while only 20% named “experience.”
Set against a large banner reading “Obama: Change We Can Believe In,” an upbeat Obama thanked a roomful of electric Iowa supporters, and proclaimed “We are one nation, we are one people…We are choosing hope over fear. We are choosing unity over division…They don’t own this government. We do, and we are here to take it back.”
CNN Chief Political Correspondent John King called the speech “brilliant.” Of Clinton, he said, “she cannot afford to lose again.”
Even Wolf Blitzer, who led CNN’s coverage of the contest, called the results “A big disappointment for Hillary Clinton” and “A big disappointment for Mitt Romney.” Noted journalist Carl Bernstein remarked that former president Bill Clinton appeared “devastated” during his wife’s post-return speech.
Indeed, tonight’s result marks a stinging upset for Mike Huckabee against top rivals Mitt Romney and John McCain. Both CNN and Fox News called the Republican contest for the former governor of Arkansas at approximately 9 p.m. EST.
Reporting for CNN, Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider writes: “Mike Huckabee’s victory in Iowa’s GOP caucus can be largely attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, our entrance polling shows.” Schneider noted that evangelicals constituted the majority of Iowa caucus-goers at 60%, and that Huckabee won 45% of that group. “Mitt Romney, who has heavily courted social conservatives, only drew 19 percent of those voters,” said Schneider.
In another historically significant finish, Republican Ron Paul, who is credited with reinvigorating much of America’s college-aged voters, won approximately ten percent of the Iowa Republican vote. Senator John McCain - who finished slightly ahead of the congressman - was recently reported to be upset by the challenge posed by Paul.
“Ron Paul’s like the Joker in a poker game,” said an unidentified McCain staffer, highlighting the fiercely independent Republican’s unprecedented success. Fox News has been heavily criticized in the last week for its refusal to allow Paul a place in its upcoming presidential candidates’ debate.
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The campaigns move on to New Hampshire tonight for the New England state’s primary on Jan. 8. Following tonight’s knockout performance - both electoral and rhetorical - by Obama, many political observers are opining that New Hampshire represents Clinton’s last chance. A visibly disappointed Romney - the son of former Michigan Governor George Romney - is also expected to campaign hard in the state, where there are significantly fewer evangelical voters.
Update: As of Friday, Jan. 4, Democratic contenders Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have gracefully bowed out of the presidential race. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio - who each finished with less than 3% in the Iowa caucus - have announced plans to continue their campaigns. On the Republican side, Ron Paul - who finished with just over 10% of the vote - has similarly vowed to continue. Paul has numerous records for fund-raising totals, and received more support (29%) from independent Republican voters than any other candidate in Iowa, according to entrance polls.
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