Despite continued optimism from the federal government and some improving indicators in last month’s national economic report, with skyrocketing gas prices and a housing market still in freefall, American consumers remain on edge.

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO James Dimon, the fear is well-founded.

“Even if the capital markets crisis resolves,” he told a UBS AG-sponsored conference on Monday, “it does not mean that this country will not go into a bad recession. The recession just started.”

Dimon speaks from experience. As reported by the Associated Press, “his bank saw its first-quarter profit fall by half due to the recent collapse of the U.S. mortgage market.”

“We don’t know if it’s going to be mild or severe,” Dimon said. “We’re thinking there’s a third of a chance that it’s going to be pretty bad…closer to the 1982 recession than the very mild recessions we had in 2001 and 1990.”

Nearing the end of the recession in 1982, nine million Americans were without jobs – the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression – and 17,000 American businesses had failed.

The instability of the current market is highlighted by JPMorgan’s intended acquisition of rival investment firm Bear Stearns Cos., a government-subsidized takeover that has yet to go through.

“I want to make it perfectly clear: Mission not accomplished,” said Dimon at the conference. Bear Stearns shareholders are expected to vote on the proposed acquisition May 29. When Bear Stearns fell to the lending crisis in March, JPMorgan seemed poised to easily acquire the troubled bank at pennies on the dollar. Today, the volatile market is forcing JPMorgan and outside analysts to take a second look.

According to the AP, Dimon remained confident about the decision, but noted that “we are bearing an awful lot of risk” by taking on the once-mighty rival’s assets.