Wasting no time, both Democrats and Republicans have shifted to the general election. Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are taking regular (almost daily) jabs at one another on a variety of topics. Today’s squabble, as an article in the New York Times reports, revolved around the economy. It is logical to assume that the next five months will be filled with the same such mutual distortions and over-simplifications.

While it does strike me as premature that the candidates have begun to engage each other so aggressively already, watching the last few days has left me with one inescapable feeling: this election is Barack Obama’s to lose. Here are a few reasons that I think show a favorable fall is coming for Obama:

1) Polls

Foxnews.com, the bastion of all things conservative and stupid, noted today that Barack Obama currently has a 7-point lead over John McCain. While a lead this early in the season doesn’t predict absolute success, it is a sizable bump so quickly after wrapping up the nomination.

2) Money

Senator Obama enjoys a financial advantage over Senator McCain. Obama’s fundraising has already set records. He raised $272 million at the end of April from 1.5 million donors. Astonishingly, it appears more is coming. TheHill.com has projected Obama could raise $100 million in June and another $630 million by the election if current trends continue. While John McCain’s fundraising has been stronger in recent weeks, the Obama money machine is a juggernaut.

3) President Bush

There are those who said the Presidency of George W. Bush would be historic and they were right. George W. Bush is now the most unpopular President in modern history. This makes McCain’s task all that much harder as the Democrats have worked very hard to tie him to Bush in recent weeks.

4) McCain is Old.

It seems the only number more insurmountable for John McCain than George Bush’s approval rating is his own age. McCain is old. Really old. He’d be 72 on Inauguration Day and 78 if he served two terms. As Jack Cafferty of CNN.com writes, some polls have shown the country is hesitant to elect a candidate old enough to remember going West in a stagecoach. (No, McCain isn’t that old but he sure is close.)

5) The Narrative

Barack Obama has successfully defined the narrative of the election. This is evident in McCain’s terrible speech on the night Obama won the nomination. The background reads “A Leader We Can Believe In” and McCain used the word “change” more than 30 times in his speech. Obama’s campaign slogan is “Change We Can Believe In” and, of course, Obama often mentions change. In defining the terms of the election, Barack Obama has put John McCain on defense. It is much harder to win an election when you’re not the one setting the ground rules.

It looks like Barack Obama has a few reasons to smile. Things are looking up for him. This isn’t to say he’ll win the election, but it certainly isn’t John McCain’s to lose.